Bitcoin’s bracing for a bit of a wobble, folks. Not a crash, mind you, but a good, old-fashioned seesaw. Analyst Greg Magadini, over at Amberdata, figures we’re looking at a price range between $6,000 and $8,000 in the coming days, all thanks to the post-election jitters. It’s not exactly a prediction of doom and gloom, more like…expect some movement. And probably a few stressed-out traders.
- Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate between $6,000 and $8,000 due to post-election uncertainty, according to Amberdata. This volatility is driven by the close race in the U.S. election.
- Options traders are showing a bullish sentiment by purchasing call options, indicating bets on Bitcoin’s price increasing to as high as $90,000. This suggests an expectation of new all-time highs despite potential election outcomes.
- Ether is predicted to be more volatile than Bitcoin, with a potential swing of around $247 based on current prices. On-chain data also reveals a higher number of call option contracts for Ether, mirroring the bullish trend seen in Bitcoin.
How’d he come up with those numbers? Well, it’s all about volatility. The market’s currently pricing in an annualized volatility of 112%, which translates to a potential $4,000 swing in either direction. That 1.5-sigma move – a fancy way of saying a fairly typical fluctuation – lands us right in that $6,000 to $8,000 ballpark. We saw a similar bounce back in August when some yen carry traders decided to cash out, sending a ripple of panic through the market. It wasn’t pretty, but it happened.
Election Uncertainty & Bullish Bets
The timing, naturally, is tied to the U.S. election. Right now, it’s a nail-biter. Trump and Harris are neck and neck in those crucial swing states, and that uncertainty is what’s driving the volatility. Magadini thinks the 50-50 odds mean no matter who wins, the market won’t be *completely* surprised. A massive, three-sigma event – a real outlier – seems unlikely. But a complete standstill? That’s also doubtful. Traders aren’t pricing in a sure thing, and that’s creating the conditions for a bit of a ride.
Interestingly, options traders seem to be leaning towards the bullish side. They’re buying up call options – bets that the price will go up – at strike prices of $70,000, $85,000, and even $90,000. A surge to those levels from Bitcoin’s current price around $68,800 would mean new all-time highs. Joshua Lim, from Arbelos Markets, points out that call options are pricier than puts, signaling that sentiment is tilted towards a price increase. Even with some polls looking less favorable for Trump, those call options are still gaining value. It’s a bit counterintuitive, but that’s the market for you.
Lim adds that the market is anticipating a 7-8% move around the Fed rate decision on Thursday and, of course, the election results on Friday. So, buckle up. It could be a bumpy couple of days.
Ether’s Wild Ride & On-Chain Sentiment
Now, let’s talk about Ether. It’s historically been more volatile than Bitcoin, and that’s not expected to change. According to data from Derive, there’s a 68% chance of Ether swinging between 9.35% and 10.19%. That translates to a $247 move at its current price of $2,470. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is expected to see volatility in the 8.97% to 9.85% range – a $6,800 swing. So, Ether’s likely to be the wilder child in this scenario.
And just like with Bitcoin, on-chain traders are betting on bullish volatility. As of Sunday, there were more call option contracts (1,179) than put option contracts (885). Nick Forster, founder of Derive, notes that these figures are crucial for traders trying to navigate the uncertainty. It’s a sophisticated game, and these on-chain options are giving us a glimpse into how traders are positioning themselves. It’s a bit like reading tea leaves, but with more math.
The election is close, the volatility is building, and traders are making their moves. It’s a pivotal moment for crypto, and it’s going to be interesting to see how it all plays out. Will Bitcoin hit $8,000? Will Ether go on a rampage? Only time will tell. But one thing’s for sure: it won’t be boring.
