Imagine sitting across from me at a café, a fresh cup steaming between us. We are talking about Strategy, Michael Saylor’s firm, and its rather bold approach to Bitcoin. The company just wrapped up the second quarter of 2025 with a significant addition to its Bitcoin stash. They added 69,140 Bitcoin, actually beating TD Cowen’s estimate of 66,000 coins. This move pushed their 2025 Bitcoin yield to nearly 20 percent.
- Strategy added a significant amount of Bitcoin in Q2 2025, exceeding analyst estimates. This boosted their projected Bitcoin yield for the year.
- The company’s recent purchase was funded through stock sales and convertible offerings, demonstrating a continued commitment to acquiring Bitcoin.
- TD Cowen highlights the premium at which Strategy’s shares trade, attributing it to factors like equity issuance and demand for Bitcoin exposure.
This latest acquisition, finalized around July 1, involved buying 4,980 Bitcoin last week. The average price paid was $106,801 per coin. This brought Strategy’s total holdings to a staggering 597,325 Bitcoin. At current prices, that is roughly $63 billion worth of the digital asset. It is quite a sum, isn’t it?
The Premium Puzzle and What It Means
Now, let us talk about Strategy’s shares. They continue to trade at a substantial premium, about 63 percent, above their net asset value (NAV). You might wonder why. TD Cowen calls this markup reasonable. Their reasoning is simple: every time Strategy sells equity, that money immediately converts into more Bitcoin per share. It is a direct loop, you see.
Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete point to three main reasons for this premium. First, the company keeps issuing equity at prices well above its NAV. Second, there is a growing demand for the firm’s fixed-income stack. This helps keep shareholder dilution to a minimum. And third, Strategy’s stock has become a popular stand-in for spot Bitcoin. For some, it is an easier way to get Bitcoin exposure without directly holding the asset.
Of course, risks are always present. Cowen noted that Bitcoin’s price swings could wipe out mark-to-market gains. They also mentioned that regulators might start looking more closely at corporate crypto treasuries. And there is always the chance the market could decide to shrink Strategy’s premium. Even with these concerns, the firm argues that Saylor’s strategy continues to build intrinsic Bitcoin per share faster than Bitcoin’s price rises on its own. It is a unique approach, to say the least.
Strategy’s stock has climbed 34.7 percent year-to-date, according to Yahoo Finance data. Cowen analysts expect this positive movement to continue. This holds true as long as the company can raise capital on good terms. It also depends on Bitcoin staying on its projected path. Cowen’s valuation model has Bitcoin reaching $128,000 by December 2025.
Looking Ahead: Big Bets and Bigger Holdings
The investment bank left Strategy’s “buy” rating unchanged. Their price target for the stock remains $590. This is about 45 percent above Monday’s closing price of $404.23. But they did raise their long-range Bitcoin accumulation assumption. They now believe Strategy will control just over 850,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2027. To put that into perspective, that is roughly 4.1 percent of the total 21 million Bitcoin that will ever exist. Their model also nudged the firm’s 2025 Bitcoin yield to 26.1 percent. And they project year-end Bitcoin dollar gains to be $11.9 billion.
So, what could push Strategy even further? TD Cowen points to a few potential catalysts. One is the possibility of Strategy being included in the S&P 500 index. Another is clearer U.S. tax guidance for crypto assets. And a broadening institutional interest in Bitcoin could also provide a significant boost. These factors, if they come to pass, could accelerate Strategy’s growth even more.
It is a fascinating play, isn’t it? Strategy is not just buying Bitcoin. It is building a business model around it, using its own equity and debt to fuel its digital asset treasury. It is a high-stakes game, but for now, it appears to be paying off, at least in the eyes of TD Cowen. The question for investors, then, becomes how long this unique loop can keep spinning.
