The familiar rhythm of Bitcoin, a beat many of us have danced to for years, might just be changing its tune. For a long time, the market moved to the drum of the four-year halving cycle. It was a predictable pattern, almost like clockwork, guiding expectations for price swings and bull runs.
- Research from K33 suggests that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year halving cycle may no longer be the primary driver of market movements. This is attributed to significant shifts like increased institutional adoption and changes in macro policy.
- The firm argues that Bitcoin has entered a new era, driven by structural forces rather than retail speculation. While short-term consolidation is expected due to recent ETF and derivatives surges, a full structural reversal is not anticipated.
- The rise of institutional players like BlackRock and Morgan Stanley, alongside a more crypto-friendly political landscape and anticipated expansionary monetary policy, signals a fundamental change in how Bitcoin operates within the global financial system.
But what if that clock has stopped ticking? What if the old playbook, the one we all thought we knew by heart, is no longer relevant? That is the bold claim coming from K33, a research and brokerage firm, in their recent October outlook.
K33 argues that Bitcoin has entered a fundamentally new era. They say institutional adoption, sovereign participation, and shifts in macro policy have rendered the old cycle obsolete. It is a big statement, suggesting the market’s metronome has been replaced by something entirely different.
The Old Playbook is Gone
Bitcoin recently hit new all-time highs, not just against the U.S. dollar, but also the euro. This marked its first euro-denominated record since January 2025. It is a significant milestone, especially when viewed through K33’s new lens.
Vetle Lunde, K33’s Head of Research, put it plainly in their report. He wrote, “The 4-year cycle is dead, long live the king.” This suggests that this time truly is different. Bitcoin’s path is now shaped by structural forces, not the retail mania that often drove past peaks.
Of course, Lunde did concede that the market looks a bit overheated right now. We saw a massive surge in Bitcoin ETF and derivatives exposure, over 63,000 BTC ($7.75 billion) in a single week. That is the strongest accumulation we have seen all year in 2025.
Open interest on CME futures jumped by nearly 15,000 BTC. U.S. ETFs absorbed over 31,600 BTC in just seven days. Historically, spikes like these often signal local tops, followed by a return to the mean. However, Lunde expects only a short-term consolidation, not a full structural reversal.
He believes this rally in 2025 is the opposite of earlier euphoric Bitcoin peaks. Think back to 2017. Optimism around CME’s futures launch led to a blow-off top. In 2021, the dream of ETFs ended with a rejection from the Securities and Exchange Commission.
A New Era of Institutional Reality
But in 2025, those dreams are now reality. Lunde points out that Bitcoin is a material part of the global institutional market. It is no longer just a fringe asset for early adopters.
Consider BlackRock, for example. They now manage roughly $100 billion in Bitcoin ETF assets. That is a staggering sum. Morgan Stanley is guiding its clients to allocate up to 4% of their portfolios to crypto. These are not small players on the sidelines.
Even Washington D.C. has embraced a crypto-friendly agenda. President Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is a clear signal. There are also plans to open 401(k) plans to digital assets. These moves show a significant shift in official attitudes.
The macro policy landscape also plays a big part. In 2021, tighter monetary policy and a push for post-COVID sobriety coincided with Bitcoin’s peak. Fast forward to 2026, and the picture looks different. President Trump is expected to replace Jerome Powell with a “rate-cutting marionette,” as Lunde put it.
This shift would likely pour “gasoline” on the “expansionary Big Beautiful Bill.” In simpler terms, we are looking at a period of abundance rather than restrictive austerity. This kind of environment clearly favors scarce assets, and Bitcoin certainly fits that description.
Reading the Market’s New Signals
Some might look at historical fractal analysis and suggest Bitcoin is nearing a cyclical high. The current run, 1,051 days from the November 2022 bottom, roughly matches the 1,060-day expansions of prior bull runs. But Lunde dismisses such symmetry as mere coincidence.
“Fractals are lazy,” he said. K33 prefers a more dynamic approach. They use a six-part framework to assess market risk factors. This includes looking at funding rates, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bitcoin dominance decline, perpetual futures versus spot volumes, social trends, and supply dynamics.
Right now, only two indicators in K33’s framework are flashing red. These are the divergence between perpetual futures and spot volumes, and an overbought RSI metric. By K33’s measure, this keeps the market outside what they call the “danger zone,” a state typical of prior peaks.
This means Bitcoin’s price action remains healthy, even with the recent surge. Lunde’s conclusion is firm: “Nothing points toward another repeat of the dreaded 4-year cycle.” The market is evolving, and the tools we use to understand it must evolve too.
It seems the crypto world is growing up, shedding some of its old skin. The institutional money is here, the political winds are shifting, and the market’s internal mechanics are changing. We are watching a new chapter unfold, one where the rules are still being written, but the old ones have certainly been retired.
