The air in the crypto world feels a little thinner this week. Bitcoin, the digital gold many hoped would just keep climbing, has hit a snag. A respected voice in market analysis now suggests the bull run we’ve enjoyed since early 2023 has simply run out of road.
- Seasoned analyst Jon Glover predicts Bitcoin could fall to $70,000 or lower, signaling the end of the bull run that began in early 2023. He anticipates a bear market lasting until at least late 2026.
- Glover’s analysis is based on the Elliott Wave Theory, which suggests investor sentiment moves in predictable five-wave cycles. He believes Bitcoin has completed its upward five-wave move and is now entering a corrective phase.
- This bearish outlook is supported by historical Bitcoin halving cycles and current market signals like the premium on put options, indicating traders are preparing for a price decline.
Jon Glover, a seasoned Elliott Wave analyst and Ledn’s Chief Investment Officer, has delivered a stark message. He believes Bitcoin’s price could tumble to $70,000 or even lower. This would mean a drop of more than 35% from its current rate, which hovers around $108,000.
Glover’s forecasts often hit the mark. So, when he speaks, people listen. He sees a sustained bear market ahead, one that might stretch out until at least late 2026. That’s a long time to wait for sunny skies.
“I firmly believe we have completed the five-wave upward move and are now entering a bear market that may last until at least late 2026,” Glover stated. He added, “I expect bitcoin to trade between $70K and $80K, and possibly even lower.” It’s a sobering thought for anyone holding Bitcoin.
He does allow for a small chance Bitcoin might retest its record highs near $124,000. It could even climb a bit higher. But Glover’s broader view is clear: the trend has turned. Prices are likely to be lower in the months ahead.
Reading the Market’s Rhythm
To understand Glover’s thinking, we need to touch on the Elliott Wave Theory. Ralph Nelson Elliott introduced this idea back in 1938. It suggests that the collective mood of investors moves in predictable cycles. These cycles form a distinct five-wave pattern.
Imagine a series of waves on the ocean. Three of these waves push in the main direction of the tide. Two other waves act as corrections, pulling back slightly. This is how the theory sees market movements playing out.
Bitcoin’s recent bullish five-wave pattern began in late 2022. Back then, prices were below $20,000. This pattern culminated with its fifth wave, peaking at a record above $126,000 just this month. It was quite a ride.
Initially, this fifth wave was expected to carry prices even higher. Forecasts suggested $140,000 to $150,000 by the year’s end. Glover himself made this prediction in early August. That call came after a sharp dip from $120,000 to $112,000, which had many people feeling a bit nervous.
Prices did surge, just as he predicted. But the momentum stalled once Bitcoin pushed past $125,000 this month. Glover then issued a warning. He said a repeated failure to hold above that level would weaken the bull case. And so it did.
Bitcoin tumbled to $105,000 last week. This fall confirmed an early end to what many had hoped would be a longer bull run. Glover didn’t mince words.
“Now that we have broken down below $108k, I am ready to make the call as to whether we are on the orange path in the chart below and therefore looking for a move up to $145k, or are on the yellow path, which would mean that we have seen the highs in this market,” Glover explained. He then delivered his verdict: “Here’s my call: THE BULL RUN IN BITCOIN IS OVER!”
This bearish outlook aligns with Bitcoin’s past behavior. Historically, Bitcoin tends to peak and then enter a bear market about 18 months after each halving event. The most recent halving, if you recall, happened in April 2024. The timing feels familiar.
Other market signals also support Glover’s view. Data from Amberdata shows something interesting. Bitcoin’s Deribit-listed put options are trading at a premium. Put options are contracts that give traders the right to sell Bitcoin at a certain price, offering protection against a fall.
These put options are more expensive than call options, which bet on prices rising. This premium extends through the September 2026 expiry. What does this tell us? It suggests some traders are actively preparing for prices to drop. They are betting on downside risks that could last well into next year.
So, what does this mean for the average crypto enthusiast? It means the market might be settling in for a quieter period. The wild, upward swings could be less frequent for a while. It’s a time when patience might become your best friend.
The crypto market has always had its ups and downs. This latest forecast reminds us that even the most exciting assets follow patterns. We’ll be watching closely to see if Glover’s prediction holds true. It certainly gives us something to think about over our next cup of coffee.
