Bitcoin just hit a new all-time high, soaring past $126,000 this week. For many, a price like that usually signals a rush to the exits, a moment when holders cash in their chips. You might expect a flurry of profit-taking, a quiet sigh of relief as gains are locked away. But here is where the story takes an interesting turn, one that suggests the current rally might have more road ahead than some imagine.
- Despite Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, the amount of profit-taking among holders remains remarkably low, suggesting the current rally may have further to go.
- Analysis of realized profits and holder behavior, particularly from long-term and “OG” holders, indicates a strong confidence in continued upward price movement rather than an imminent market top.
- Projections from analytics firms and financial institutions suggest potential for further significant price increases, driven by sustained demand and retail investor adoption through ETFs.
Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant has been watching the numbers closely. What they found might surprise you. Despite the impressive new peak, the amount of profit-taking happening right now remains remarkably low. It is a bit like watching a high-stakes poker game where no one is showing their hand, even after a big win.
Let’s talk about “net realized profits.” Think of it as the total profit that Bitcoin holders have actually locked in by selling their coins. Over the past 30 days, this figure sits at about 0.26 million BTC, which translates to roughly $30 billion. Now, that sounds like a lot, doesn’t it?
But put it into perspective. This $30 billion is about half of what we saw in July, which was $63 billion. It is also well short of the peaks from March and December 2024, when realized profits hit $78 billion and $99 billion respectively. The difference is stark, and it tells a story.
This pattern of low realized profits suggests something important. Market participants are choosing to hold onto their Bitcoin rather than cashing out. They are not taking their winnings off the table just yet. CryptoQuant believes this implies “bitcoin may continue to rally, and that a top is still not on the horizon.”
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, put it plainly. He told The Block that as long as there is positive momentum on realized profits, meaning holders are taking profit at higher levels, prices tend to trend upward. Bull markets, he noted, historically end when holders start selling into lower realized profits.
When those net realized profits begin to decline, Moreno explained, it often signals a shift. It means new buyers are selling quickly, realizing losses that actually outweigh the profits made by earlier holders. We are not seeing that dynamic play out right now, which is a good sign for the bulls.
The Long Game: Who’s Holding What
It is worth looking at who is holding and who is selling. Short-term holders, the ones who typically jump in and out of the market, have recently realized gains at margins of only 2%. This is quite low when you consider that market tops are usually linked to levels around 8% for this group.
Then there are the long-term holders. These are the folks who have been in the game for a while, often through thick and thin. Their realized margins stand near 129%. While impressive, it is still a far cry from the extreme peaks of around 300%, or roughly four times their initial investment, seen in previous cycles.
And what about the true veterans, the “OG” holders? These are the addresses that have held Bitcoin for over a decade. Their activity is perhaps the most telling. In the last 30 days, only about 5,000 BTC were moved from these ancient wallets. That is half the amount sold during prior peaks in March and December 2024.
It is also 29% below the levels seen in May 2025. When the oldest hands in the game are barely stirring, it speaks volumes about their confidence. They are not rushing to sell, suggesting they believe there is still significant upside to come. They have seen cycles before, and they know when to sit tight.
Overall, the message from CryptoQuant is clear. The combination of low realized profits and minimal activity from long-term holders suggests that a market top is not forming. It is a quiet confidence, a collective decision to let the rally run its course.
Looking Ahead: Price Targets and Retail Power
This sentiment is not just a hunch. Last week, CryptoQuant themselves projected that Bitcoin’s rally could continue well into the fourth quarter. They even put out some ambitious targets, suggesting a range of $160,000 to $200,000 if demand remains strong. Those are numbers that get people talking over their morning coffee.
JPMorgan analysts also weighed in on the discussion. They suggested that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued when compared to gold. This implies a potential upside toward $165,000. Their reasoning points to retail investors, who are increasingly embracing what they call the “debasement trade” through Bitcoin ETF inflows.
The “debasement trade” essentially means investors are looking for assets that can hold their value against inflation or the perceived weakening of traditional currencies. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply, fits that narrative for many. The ease of access through ETFs has only amplified this trend, bringing new money into the ecosystem.
So, what does this all mean for you, the curious reader watching the market? It means that despite Bitcoin hitting new highs, the underlying behavior of many holders suggests a belief in further growth. It is not a frantic scramble for profits, but a patient wait for even bigger things.
The current price hovers around $123,650, showing a modest 2.4% gain in the past 24 hours. This steady climb, coupled with the holding patterns we have discussed, paints a picture of a market still gathering momentum, rather than one preparing for a sudden halt. The road ahead remains interesting, to say the least.
