Bitcoin just pulled off a neat trick. It bounced back to $110,000, shrugging off some rather gloomy news. Think of it like a tightrope walker finding balance after a gust of wind. The market saw a whipsaw Federal Open Market Committee session and a surprising de-escalation between Washington and Beijing. These big events improved global risk sentiment, even as U.S. spot crypto ETFs recorded another day of heavy outflows.
- Bitcoin experienced a significant recovery to $110,000, defying negative news and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance. This resilience was attributed to improved global risk sentiment stemming from de-escalation in U.S.-China relations.
- Despite general market caution reflected in substantial ETF outflows, Solana spot ETFs saw notable inflows, indicating a potential divergence in investor interest.
- Analysts suggest that diplomatic progress has temporarily overshadowed central bank pronouncements, offering a brief period of market stability amidst broader economic uncertainties and data delays.
I saw Bitcoin trading between $109,600 and $110,200 early Friday. This was a solid recovery from its earlier dip near $107,000. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had just said a December rate cut “is not a foregone conclusion.” That kind of talk usually makes crypto investors nervous. But something else caught their eye.
Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, put it plainly. Traders shifted their focus. They moved from the Fed’s “hawkish cut” to the U.S.–China trade deal. It seems diplomacy, for a moment, trumped central bank talk. Meanwhile, Ether held around $3,900, BNB was close to $1,100, and SOL stayed below $190. The total crypto market value hovered near $3.76 trillion.
Diplomacy Takes the Wheel
Analysts are saying that diplomacy has stepped into a macro vacuum. This gap was left by a U.S. data blackout. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in South Korea. They announced tariff reductions and commitments on several issues. It was a moment of calm in what has often been a stormy relationship.
Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, spoke about the White House’s China talks. He pointed to a “confidence boost” from agreements. These covered trade, energy, and fentanyl enforcement. It felt like a breath of fresh air for global markets. He also mentioned the U.S. GDP report. It was delayed to December because of the shutdown. This delay has muddied near-term macro reads, making things less clear.
Multiple analyst notes I’ve seen share a common view. Government gridlock makes macro visibility even harder. It holds up other key data releases, leaving investors guessing. This uncertainty often leads to caution, and we certainly saw that reflected in the ETF flows.
ETF Currents and October’s Surprise
U.S. spot ETF flows have indeed reflected this caution. On Thursday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $488 million in net outflows. Not a single individual fund saw net inflows. That’s a significant amount of capital leaving the Bitcoin market. Spot Ether ETFs also posted roughly $184 million in outflows, showing similar investor sentiment.
But there was a twist. Spot Solana ETFs bucked the trend. They recorded $37.33 million in net inflows. This marked their third straight day of gains, led by Bitwise’s BSOL. It makes you wonder, doesn’t it? While the big players struggled, Solana found its footing. Perhaps some investors see it as a different kind of opportunity.
Looking at the monthly close, October 2025 is shaping up to be one of Bitcoin’s weakest Octobers in more than a decade. An early-month all-time high faded quickly. It led to over $10 billion in liquidations, according to CoinGlass data. October is usually a bullish month for BTC. This downturn was a surprise, a real curveball for many traders.
The Path Ahead
Despite this unexpected dip, Paul Howard, a senior director at Wincent, expressed optimism. He holds a positive long-term outlook for Bitcoin. It’s a reminder that crypto markets often play a longer game than daily headlines suggest. He believes the current price action is a temporary blip.
Howard stated, “BTC prices should hold in the $110,000-$120,000 range post the Fed rate cut.” He acknowledged that “concerns of a further cut potentially not happening have moved prices slightly lower.” It’s a delicate balance, this dance between market expectations and central bank signals.
He added, “My sense is this is convenient for short-term accumulation.” He expects to see macro improvements heading into November. These improvements, he thinks, will drive risk assets like BTC higher. Then, he anticipates some end-of-year consolidation. It sounds like a bit of a breather before the next big move. We’ll be watching to see if his sense proves right.
