The air around Bitcoin felt a little thinner this week. For the first time since June, the digital asset dipped below the $100,000 mark. It’s a number that holds a certain weight, a psychological line in the sand for many. But what does it truly mean when that line gives way?
- Onchain analytics suggest Bitcoin could fall to $72,000 if the $100,000 level doesn’t hold, citing cooling demand and negative ETF flows in the US. The CryptoQuant Bull Score Index is currently at a low 20, indicating bearish conditions.
- The recent price action follows a massive liquidation event on October 10th, where over $20 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out, causing market aftershocks.
- Despite short-term volatility, long-term factors like strong ETF flows, corporate adoption, and potential future liquidity increases suggest Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs, indicating a structural shift rather than a fundamental weakness.
Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant has a clear, if sobering, answer. Their head of research, Julio Moreno, suggests Bitcoin could slide to $72,000. This could happen within a month or two, he warns, if the $100,000 level doesn’t firm up. It’s a prediction that certainly gets your attention, isn’t it?
Moreno points to a continued cooling of demand. He notes that spot demand for Bitcoin, the kind where you buy the asset outright, has been shrinking. In the United States, investors are showing less interest, visible in negative flows for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a negative Coinbase price premium. Think of it as less fresh money coming in to buy.
CryptoQuant’s own Bull Score Index, a measure of market health, sits at a low 20. This indicates firmly bearish conditions. It’s a bit like a weather report for the crypto market, and right now, it’s forecasting clouds.
This recent price action isn’t happening in a vacuum. It follows what many call the largest liquidation event in crypto history. Back on October 10, more than $20 billion in leveraged positions simply evaporated. Imagine a massive domino effect, where one bad trade triggers a cascade of forced selling. That’s what happened, and the market has been feeling the aftershocks ever since.
We’ve seen some back-and-forth predictions on this $100,000 level. Geoffrey Kendrick, who heads digital assets research at Standard Chartered, initially called a dip below it “inevitable.” That was right after the October 10 event. He later offered a glimmer of hope, suggesting Bitcoin might “never go below $100,000 again” if certain macro and geopolitical factors improved. He was looking at things like better U.S.–China trade talks.
Well, Bitcoin did eventually break that level, though a bit later than Kendrick’s initial timeframe. It shows how quickly market sentiment can shift, and how external forces can play a big role. The broader market has been feeling a “risk-off” mood. This means investors are pulling money from assets perceived as less safe, not just in crypto, but also in traditional stocks and commodities.
What’s driving this cautious mood? Gerry O’Shea, who leads global market insights at Hashdex, points to several factors. There’s talk that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might not cut interest rates this year. Concerns over tariffs, credit market conditions, and how highly valued stocks are also contribute. These are big, complex gears turning in the global economy, and they affect everything, including Bitcoin.
O’Shea also mentions selling from long-term Bitcoin holders. This might sound worrying, but he sees it as a natural part of the asset’s growth. As Bitcoin matures and its price climbs, some early investors will take profits. It’s an expected part of the cycle, not necessarily a sign of weakness.
Beyond the Dip: A Look at Long-Term Strength
While the $100,000 mark carries psychological weight, O’Shea doesn’t believe this recent move weakens Bitcoin’s long-term investment case. It’s a good reminder that short-term price swings are just one part of the story. The bigger picture often tells a different tale.
He highlights the strong trend in ETF flows and corporate adoption. Traditional financial institutions, the big players, continue to build infrastructure and products for digital assets. This isn’t just a fad; it’s a deep, structural shift. Think of it like major banks and investment firms laying down new railway tracks for a digital economy. That kind of building takes time, but it signals serious commitment.
There’s also the potential for more liquidity in the financial system. This could happen as the Federal Reserve eventually ends its quantitative tightening policies. More money flowing through the system often finds its way into various assets, including crypto. These are the kinds of underlying currents that can propel markets forward, even when the surface waters are choppy.
These structural factors, combined with the potential for increased liquidity, support a view that Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high in the coming months. It’s a bold prediction, especially when you consider the recent price action. But it speaks to the enduring belief in Bitcoin’s fundamental value and its growing integration into the wider financial world.
So, while the immediate forecast from CryptoQuant suggests a possible drop to $72,000, it’s worth holding that thought alongside the long-term outlook. The crypto market, much like a seasoned traveler, always seems to have a few surprises left in its bag. What new highs or lows will we see next?
