Have you ever watched the news on election night, staring at a panel of experts trying to guess the future? They pull up polls, they read tea leaves, they talk about their “gut feelings.” For decades, that’s how we’ve tried to predict big events. But what if there was a different way? What if, instead of asking experts what they think will happen, we could look at a market where thousands of people are placing real money on the outcome? That future is arriving much faster than anyone expected.
The Short Version
- Kalshi valuation doubled to $11 billion after a $1 billion raise.
- Combined trading volume for Kalshi/Polymarket exceeds $45 billion this year.
- CNBC and CNN signed deals with prediction market operators.
Two companies are at the center of this change: Kalshi and Polymarket. And they just signed deals that will put their work in front of millions of people every day. Kalshi recently announced an exclusive partnership with the business news giant CNBC. Not long before that, it became the official prediction market partner for CNN. Its main rival, Polymarket, has been busy too, striking deals with Yahoo Finance and even the mixed-martial arts league, UFC.
It seems the biggest names in media are all coming to the same conclusion. There’s a powerful new source of information out there, and they want in.
So, What Exactly Is a Prediction Market?
Let’s put the jargon aside for a moment. Imagine a stock market, but instead of buying shares in a company like Apple or Ford, you’re buying “shares” in the outcome of a real-world event.
Think of a simple question: “Will it rain in Chicago tomorrow?”
On a prediction market, you could buy a “Yes, it will rain” contract. The price of this contract moves between zero cents and one dollar. If you’re right and it does rain, your contract becomes worth a full dollar. If you’re wrong and the sun is shining, your contract is worth nothing.
The magic is in the price. If the “Yes” contract is trading for 30 cents, it means the market, as a whole, believes there’s about a 30% chance of rain. It’s not a poll where people can say whatever they want. It’s a live, breathing number backed by people putting their own money on the line. It’s the wisdom of the crowd, but with financial consequences for being wrong.
Why the News Networks Are So Interested
For a channel like CNBC, this is a goldmine of new data. For years, they’ve reported on what the stock market thinks about a company’s future. Now, they can report on what a market thinks about almost any future event.
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates next month? Instead of just interviewing three economists, a news anchor can now point to a screen and say, “The market is currently pricing in a 72% chance of a rate cut.” It’s a powerful, immediate snapshot of collective belief.
KC Sullivan, the president of CNBC, put it plainly.
Prediction markets are rapidly shaping how investors and business leaders think about important events. Kalshi’s data will serve as a powerful complement to CNBC’s reporting and help people stay better informed about the world around them.
Starting next year, you’ll begin to see this data pop up on popular shows like “Squawk Box” and “Fast Money.” It will give viewers a front-row seat to watch probabilities change in real time as new information hits the world.
This Isn’t a Small Niche Anymore
The idea of prediction markets has been around for a while, mostly in academic circles. But it’s now exploding into the mainstream. The numbers are staggering. So far this year, Kalshi and Polymarket have seen a combined trading volume of more than $45 billion.
These aren’t small startups operating out of a garage. After raising a fresh $1 billion in November, Kalshi’s valuation doubled to $11 billion. Polymarket’s CEO, Shayne Coplan, recently appeared on the famous news program “60 Minutes” and said his company is worth around $9 billion.
Even Google is taking notice. The company announced that Google Finance will start showing data from both Kalshi and Polymarket directly in its search results. Soon, asking Google about the odds of a political event might give you a direct market price, just like asking for the price of a stock.
A New Barometer for Our World
What we’re witnessing is the birth of a new kind of information source. For a long time, we’ve relied on polls and surveys to gauge public opinion. But polls have their limits. People might not say what they truly believe, or they might not have any real conviction behind their answer.
Prediction markets work differently. They force people to put their money where their mouth is. This simple mechanism often creates a surprisingly accurate forecast. If someone is willing to risk $50 betting that a movie will flop, they’ve probably done more research than someone just answering a quick phone survey.
As these platforms become a regular feature on our TV screens and news sites, they could change how we talk about the future. The conversation might shift from “What do the experts think?” to “What is the market saying?” It’s a more direct, and perhaps more honest, way of understanding what we, as a collective, believe is just around the corner.
